[Bitop Exchange Market Watch] Gold Market Focuses on Non-Farm Payroll Data, Range-Bound Trading Continues
2024年07月02日发布
Gold Market Fundamental Analysis:
On Tuesday (July 2nd), during the Asian morning session, spot gold is currently trading around $2332.16 per ounce. Gold prices rose 0.23% on Monday, closing at $2331.60 per ounce, boosted by some short covering by investors. The weaker-than-expected US June ISM Manufacturing PMI data also provided upward momentum for gold prices. Market focus now shifts to the US non-farm payroll data to be released this Friday, which could provide more clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
Due to continued sluggish demand, US manufacturing contracted for the third consecutive month in June, and the input prices index fell to a six-month low, indicating that inflation may continue to decline. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Monday that the weakness at the end of the second quarter was widespread, with the chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee saying that manufacturers were showing "unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to current monetary policy and other conditions." Manufacturing is under pressure from rising interest rates and weak demand for goods, although business investment has largely been maintained.
Currently, the market sees a 64% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September and again in December.
Gold Market Technical Analysis:
From the daily chart of spot gold, yesterday's gold price was mainly in a range-bound trend, recording a doji candlestick pattern. The price has been mainly in a range-bound trend recently, and the overall range of fluctuations has further narrowed. The MACD indicator's double lines are glued together and fail to give valuable signal guidance. It is recommended to continue with the range-bound thinking, combined with follow-up breakthroughs.
From the 4-hour chart of spot gold, yesterday's gold price rebounded rapidly near the 2318 level. Although it fell sharply after touching the 2338 level, it failed to break below the 2318 support level. Currently, the MACD indicator's double lines are slowing down in the golden cross process. We can continue to pay attention to the consolidation situation in the 2318-2338 range.
Overall, the short-term operation idea for gold is to mainly rebound and short, with the upper short-term focus on the 2345-2350 resistance level and the lower short-term focus on the 2320-2315 support level.
Gold Resistance Levels: 2330, 2335, 2345, 2350
Gold Support Levels: 2320, 2315, 2310, 2300
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